@Article{SantiagoGiVoMeOmNó:2016:AvDePr,
author = "Santiago, Gabriela Ayane Chagas Felipe and Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica
and Von Randow, Celso and Menzes, R{\^o}mulo Sim{\~o}es Cezar
and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and N{\'o}brega,
Rany{\'e}re Silva",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de
Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)}",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de destreza e das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do
cen{\'a}rio de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas A1B-Eta-HADCM3
para o estado de Pernambuco",
journal = "Revista de Geografia (Recife)",
year = "2016",
volume = "33",
number = "2",
pages = "29--45",
keywords = "Pernambuco, Modelo Eta, Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica,
Pernambuco, Eta model, Climate simulation.",
abstract = "O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar destreza das
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do clima presente (1960-1990), do modelo
EtaHadCM3 das temperaturas m{\'a}xima, m{\'e}dia,
m{\'{\i}}nima e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Avaliou-se
mudan{\c{c}}as na din{\^a}mica das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas para Pernambuco para os per{\'{\i}}odos de
2010-2040 e 2041-2070. Para a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho
dos cen{\'a}rios clim{\'a}ticos gerados pelo modelo Eta-HadCM3
foi realizada an{\'a}lise de regress{\~a}o, calculado
{\'{\i}}ndice d para cada localidade na {\'a}rea de estudo,
identificados e corrigidos os erros sistem{\'a}ticos das
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es. As temperaturas m{\'a}ximas e
m{\'{\i}}nimas apresentaram valores mais precisos, a m{\'e}dia
e a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o apresentaram valores mais exatos,
por{\'e}m a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi mais comprometida em
n{\'{\i}}vel de qualidade das sa{\'{\i}}das do modelo. Quanto
{\`a} identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos erros, viu-se que a
temperatura m{\'a}xima foi subestimada e a m{\'{\i}}nima
superestimada, mas que depois de corrigidas, os resultados foram
satisfat{\'o}rios. Com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es, identificou-se que a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o apresentou redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o nos pontos
estudados e as temperaturas apresentaram maiores valores, ambas de
forma progressiva. Concluiu-se que as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas regionais podem ser empregadas para estudos de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas no estado, por{\'e}m os erros
sistem{\'a}ticos devem ser considerados, j{\'a} que s{\~a}o
inerentes {\`a}s imperfei{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos modelos, para que
diminuam as incertezas da modelagem em estudos de impactos das
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas globais. ABSTRACT: The objective
of this research was to evaluate the level of skill to projections
{"}present{"} climate (1960-1990), the Eta-HadCM3 model of maximum
temperatures, average, minimum and precipitation. We evaluated
changes in the dynamics of climate projections to Pernambuco for
the periods 2010-2040 and 2041-2070. For evaluating the
performance of climate scenarios generated by the Eta-HadCM3 model
regression analysis was performed, calculated index {"}d{"} for
each location in the study area, identifying and correcting
systematic errors of forecasts. The maximum and minimum
temperatures were more accurate values, and the average and the
precipitation values were more accurate, but the precipitation was
more committed to quality level of the model outputs. The
identification of errors, it is seen that the maximum temperature
was underestimated and overestimated the minimum, but after the
rectification, the results were satisfactory. Regarding
projections, it was found that the precipitation decreased in the
studied points and temperatures were higher, both progressively.
It was concluded that regional climate simulations can be used to
study climate change in the state, but the systematic errors must
be considered, since they are inherent imperfections of the
models, so diminishing the uncertainties of modeling studies of
climate change impacts global.",
issn = "0104-5490",
label = "lattes: 0213112231789493 2 SantiagoGiaRanOmeN{\'o}b:2016:AvDeDa",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "santiago_avaliacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}